September 2026 | Twenty Arms
The FAO Sugar Price Index rose 11.9% in August 2026, reaching its highest level since June 2025. Lower Brazilian output, dry weather in Europe and concerns about Asian crops contributed to the increase. India’s announcement of duty-free raw-sugar imports added to the pressure. FAO’s September release sets out the main supply concerns.
White-sugar benchmarks have since eased during September. For importers arranging their next shipment, attention now turns to refined-sugar availability, loading dates and the cost of sourcing from competing origins.
Brazil’s production outlook
Brazil produced approximately 44 million tonnes of sugar in the 2024/25 season, with more than 90% coming from the Centre-South, according to UNICA. The region’s scale gives its harvest and mill-production decisions considerable influence over world supply.
The split between sugar and ethanol is worth following closely. Changes in the returns available from either product affect how Brazilian mills allocate cane, with consequences for sugar output and export availability.
In its August 2026 outlook, the International Sugar Organization forecast a small global deficit of 0.2 million tonnes for 2026/27. That estimate assumes higher prices encourage Brazilian mills to favour sugar production. ISO also identified El Niño as a major risk to its crop forecasts.
For procurement teams, actual sugar output and the availability of the required refined grade will be the useful measures over the coming months.
Where sugar prices stood in September
The International Sugar Organization’s daily series shows the easing in white-sugar prices during the month. The figures below provide a reference for discussions with suppliers.
| Benchmark | 1 September 2026 | 25 September 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| ISO White Sugar Price Index | US$533.55 per metric tonne | US$508.90 per metric tonne |
| ISA Daily Price, raw sugar | 18.81 US cents per lb | 17.99 US cents per lb |
Source: ISO daily prices, checked 28 September 2026. The white-sugar index averages the first two ICE London futures positions; the raw-sugar index averages the first three ICE New York No. 11 positions. Physical offers will also reflect origin, grade, packing, loading date and payment terms.
The September pullback gives buyers a reason to revisit earlier indications. Ask for a fresh quotation with a stated validity period and confirm the shipment terms before comparing it with another offer.
Pricing ICUMSA 45
Brazil exports several sugar grades. UNICA identifies VHP raw sugar as the principal export type, alongside refined products such as ICUMSA 45. Buyers seeking refined white sugar should establish which product the seller can supply and obtain the full specification.
The ICE White Sugar contract provides a useful market reference for ICUMSA 45. Its delivery specifications include maximum colour of 45 ICUMSA units, minimum polarisation of 99.8 degrees and maximum moisture of 0.06%. The separate Sugar No. 11 contract covers raw cane sugar.
A purchase specification should also cover the agreed test methods, grain size, packaging and destination requirements. These details can affect both the price and the suitability of the shipment for the buyer’s intended use.
Brazil, Thailand and India
Thailand is worth including in an origin comparison, particularly for Asian destinations. India requires closer attention to export policy and shipment eligibility. The commercial position in each market is summarised below.
| Origin | Supply picture | Buying considerations |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | Major producer and exporter, with VHP raw sugar its leading export grade. Source: UNICA. | Confirm refined ICUMSA 45 availability, the seller’s access to supply, loading port and shipment window. |
| Thailand | Established exporter of raw and refined sugar. USDA’s April 2026 report forecast lower production and exports in 2026/27. Source: USDA FAS (PDF). | Obtain current refined-sugar and freight quotations for the destination. Regional shipping costs may improve the landed comparison. |
| India | Export restrictions and recent raw-sugar import measures affect the trading position. DGFT notification reproduced by TaxGuru; APEDA public notices. | Confirm the relevant permission or exemption and the proposed loading date. Check the rules in force for shipments after September. |
A meaningful FOB price comparison requires offers for the same grade, quantity, packing and loading period, with each loading port named. Freight should then be priced to a common destination. This is particularly important when weighing Brazilian and Thai offers for delivery into Asia.
India’s May notification set a general export prohibition through 30 September 2026, or further orders, with specified exceptions. The notification reproduced by TaxGuru also provides for a return to restricted status if the prohibition is not extended. Buyers considering Indian supply should confirm shipment eligibility with the exporter and customs adviser before committing.
Comparing the offers
For an importer in Colombo or another destination, the comparison should include freight, insurance, destination handling, applicable duties and taxes, inland delivery and financing. Check which costs are already included in the agreed delivery term.
Alongside price, establish who will sign the sale contract and what evidence supports the proposed supply. Agree inspection arrangements, required documents and payment conditions early. For bagged container shipments, confirm that the delivery term reflects the actual handover and allocation of terminal costs.
Timing will influence the decision. An immediate requirement places greater weight on confirmed availability and loading. A later shipment gives the buyer more scope to seek updated offers as crop reports and freight rates change.
The next buying cycle
Brazilian sugar output, Asian crop conditions and Indian trade policy remain the main developments to follow. ISO’s August assessment cautioned that the rally had run ahead of fundamentals, while acknowledging the risk of a larger deficit if production deteriorates. The outlook leaves room for further price movement in either direction.
We would refresh supplier indications, compare the full delivered cost and keep the loading window under review. Those steps give an importer a firmer basis for deciding when and where to buy.
Twenty Arms facilitates agricultural commodity transactions between qualified counterparties. For sugar, we act as an intermediary. Buyers and suppliers can contact us with the grade, quantity, packing, destination, timing and proposed payment terms. Our transaction process explains how enquiries are assessed.
General market commentary as of 28 September 2026. Prices and forecasts carry the dates stated above. Any supply proposal remains subject to verification and contract.
Photograph: Immo Wegmann on Unsplash.
